A.P. Moller-Maersk has sharply raised its full-year 2026 earnings guidance after higher freight rates and congestion-driven capacity constraints boosted third-quarter performance across its shipping, logistics and terminal businesses.
The Danish shipping group now expects underlying EBITDA of US$14 billion-US$14.5 billion, up from its previous forecast of US$10.5 billion-US$12.5 billion. Its underlying EBIT outlook has increased to US$8 billion-US$8.5 billion from US$4.5 billion-US$6.5 billion.
The upgrade follows a strong third quarter in which group revenue rose 27% year-on-year to US$18.1 billion. EBITDA increased to US$4.7 billion from US$2.7 billion, while EBIT climbed to US$3.3 billion from US$1.3 billion, taking the EBIT margin to 18.1%.
The improvement was driven primarily by stronger Ocean earnings as higher spot freight rates and port congestion tightened effective vessel capacity. Severe typhoon activity across Asia disrupted port operations, with average global port waiting times peaking at 16.6 hours, the highest level since January 2023.
Maersk said that as a result, average spot freight rates, as measured by the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index were up 46% in Q3 relative to the previous quarter. Global container demand grew by an estimated 2%-4% year on year.
“We delivered a strong quarter across our businesses. Despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and disruptions, global trade has remained remarkably resilient. Demand is being driven not only by consumer spending, but increasingly by major investments in electrification, energy and the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure, generating significant flows of industrial cargo around the world. We have been well positioned to capture this demand, with our vessel fleet operating at full capacity and demand exceeding available space on certain routes,” said Vincent Clerc, Chief Executive Officer at Maersk.
The latest revision follows an earlier upgrade in August, when stronger second-quarter performance, particularly in Ocean, prompted Maersk to raise its earnings expectations. Ocean EBIT reached US$935 million in the second quarter, compared with a US$192 million loss in the first quarter, as average loaded freight rates increased 22% year on year and volumes grew 4.1%.
Maersk’s Ocean division reported EBIT of US$2.6 billion, compared with US$567 million in the same quarter last year. Loaded volumes remained high despite weather-related disruption in Asia, with vessel utilisation averaging 96%.
The stronger freight market came with higher operating costs. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and widespread network congestion increased bunker, network and container handling expenses and undermined schedule reliability. Maersk said its fleet was operating at full capacity, with demand exceeding available vessel space on certain trade routes.
Logistics & Services revenue grew 13%, supported by volume growth across most product lines, higher rates and landbridge solutions in the Gulf region. Its EBIT margin improved to 5.8% from 5.5%, reflecting cost discipline and stronger operational execution.
Terminals also delivered a record revenue performance. Volumes increased 2.6%, with Africa and Europe recording growth of 14% and 6.7%, respectively. Utilisation eased to 85% from 90%, while the adjusted EBIT margin rose to 32.5% from 32%.
Chief executive Vincent Clerc pointed to sustained global trade demand, increasingly supported by investment in electrification, energy and artificial intelligence infrastructure, as a source of additional industrial cargo flows.
Maersk’s revised forecast assumes global container market growth of about 4% for 2026. The group is also continuing to execute its US$1 billion share buy-back programme.